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YesLetter: Testing: SAT I: Articles
My Favorite Casino: The SAT Guessing Game
by Robert J.
The misinformed love the classic line, “go at your own
pace.” In the case of the SAT, it fits in with the whole
“just answer as many as you know you can get right”
philosophy. Those lines help ease student fears, but they really
don’t accomplish much. In the grand scheme of things,
if I went at my own pace, I’d probably be in the Bahamas
instead of a dorm room right now. However, I’d also have
a much lower SAT score to go back on.
Here’s what I’m getting at: if you want a top-caliber
score, you have to go at whatever pace it takes in order for
you to answer every question. If you can’t go that fast,
you have to practice until you can. The rewards of answering
every question far outweigh the risks of taking a guess every
once in a while. Contrary to popular belief, leaving an answer
blank is more damaging than taking a guess, despite the infamous
SAT “guessing penalty.”
This is because the guessing penalty isn’t a penalty
at all. It’s an equalizer that makes sure that the rest
of the system works. It’s kind of like the leap year of
the SAT.
How it works:
At its core, the SAT is scored based on raw points. You start
out with a small number of points, and then earn one for each
question you answer correctly. The “guessing penalty”
is that one quarter of a point is taken away for each answer
you get wrong. You don’t gain or lose points for questions
left blank. In theory, this system is perfect. Since every question
has five answer choices, taking a random guess on five questions
is statistically most likely to result in one correct answer
and four incorrect ones. You lose a quarter point for each of
the four answered wrong and earn a point for the one answered
correctly. That way, you break even, just as though you’d
left all five questions blank. Like I said, it’s an equalizer,
not a penalty. It prevents you from being able to profit from
haphazard guessing.
How to exploit it:
This policy always made me feel like my SAT testing room was
a casino in disguise. ETS was simply playing a game of chance
with me, betting on the fact that, statistically, I would get
one in every five guesses right. So, how do I put the odds in
my favor? It’s simple: I cut my number of guesses down
to less than five.
What happens in the same five-guess scenario if you can eliminate
one answer choice? Statistically, you’ll now get 1.25
of the 5 questions right, and 3.75 of them wrong (yes, I know
you can’t get a quarter of a question right, but stick
with me.) That translates to a gain of 1.25 raw points and a
loss of 0.9275 (.25*3.75) raw points. You just gained a net
profit of 0.3125 raw points. Glad you risked the guessing penalty?
It gets better. Most questions have three answer choices that
can be easily eliminated, leaving you with a 50/50 guess. This
scenario leaves you with a net profit of 1.875 raw points. That’s
a significant boost in your final score and not too shabby when
compared to the zero you would have earned for not taking the
risk.
This brings to surface a primary philosophy that you need to
keep in mind: You don’t just earn points for knowing the
right answer on the SAT, you earn them for knowing which answers
are wrong. Statistically speaking, for every answer you eliminate,
your net point profit goes up. So, please, if you can eliminate
a single answer choice, do it and take a guess! And, if you
can’t even eliminate one, take the guess anyway. The worst
you can do is break even. And, taking the risk is a lot more
fun than not playing at all. I love this casino.
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